The unions representing players in the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, and MLS have formally requested the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prohibit prediction market platforms from allowing bets on whether an athlete will underperform or suffer an injury. The letter, submitted as part of the CFTC's public comment period on prediction market regulation, argues that such wagers enable abusive and harassing behavior toward players and their families.
"The ability to profit from a player's failure or injury creates dangerous incentives and threatens the integrity of our sports," a spokesperson for the coalition of unions stated. "We need appropriate regulations to shield athletes from targeted harassment and potential manipulation."
The request specifically targets platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to trade event contracts on player statistics, including "unders"—bets that a player will score below a certain threshold or be sidelined by injury. The unions demand that such contracts be banned outright.
Background
The CFTC initiated a request for public input on the regulation of event contracts and prediction markets in late 2023. This move followed rapid growth in platforms offering bets on sports, election outcomes, and other real-world events, raising concerns about market manipulation and consumer protection.
Industry analysts note that prediction markets have operated in a regulatory gray area, with some platforms labeling their products as "entertainment" or "educational" to avoid oversight. The unions' intervention adds pressure on the CFTC to establish clear rules before these markets expand further.
What This Means
If the CFTC adopts the unions' recommendation, it could reshape the prediction market landscape overnight. A ban on underperformance and injury bets would remove a category that critics say incentivizes gambling on personal misfortune—such as a star player's slump or an athlete getting hurt during a game.
"This is about more than just gambling; it's about safety and fairness," said Dr. Amelia Chen, a sports ethics researcher at Georgetown University. "Allowing bets on unders turns athletes into walking contracts, potentially encouraging fans or even insiders to pressure players to fail."
Supporters of prediction markets argue that banning specific contracts violates free-market principles and pushes users toward unregulated offshore sites. However, the unions counter that the risks of harassment and match-fixing far outweigh any benefits.
Legal experts expect the CFTC to issue a formal proposal within months. Meanwhile, the sports world watches closely, as a ruling could set a precedent for how all types of personal-performance bets are handled.
Update: The CFTC declined to comment, citing the ongoing review process. The joint letter from the unions was made public earlier today.